The recent closure of the Attari-Wagah border, following the tragic terror attack in Pahalgam, South Kashmir, has sent ripples of concern across various sectors, not least the trade of dry fruits between Afghanistan and India. This border crossing, the primary land route for goods movement between the two nations, has historically facilitated the import of significant quantities of almonds and raisins, staples in Indian cuisine and cultural practices, from Afghanistan. With this crucial conduit now effectively shut down, anxieties are mounting about potential disruptions in supply chains and a consequent surge in the domestic prices of these cherished dry fruits.

Afghanistan has long been a pivotal source of dry fruits for the Indian market, with the Attari-Wagah border serving as the most economical and logistically viable pathway for these goods to reach their destination. The closure of this land route, coupled with Pakistan’s retaliatory suspension of all trade with India, including trade to and from third countries via its territory, has created a significant impediment to this established trade flow. Industry experts and traders are now voicing concerns about the immediate and near-term impact on the availability and affordability of dry fruits like almonds and raisins for Indian consumers.

Data from the recent fiscal period (April 2024 to January 2025) underscores the substantial volume of dry fruit imports from Afghanistan into India, amounting to a considerable $358 million. This figure highlights the reliance of the Indian market on Afghan produce, particularly almonds, raisins, pistachios, and dried apricots, many of which traditionally transit through the Attari-Wagah border. The abrupt cessation of this trade route is therefore poised to create a supply vacuum, at least in the short term, potentially leading to price inflation.

Rajiv Batra, president of the Khari Baoli Traders’ Association in Delhi, a major hub for dry fruit trading, has cautioned about the impending price hikes. While acknowledging that the immediate impact might be cushioned by goods already in transit, he anticipates a complete halt in imports within approximately ten days, followed by a potential price surge of up to 20% in the national capital. This projection reflects the market’s anticipation of reduced supply and the logistical challenges of securing alternative import routes.

The search for alternative routes to circumvent the border closure is already underway. Traders are reportedly exploring options through countries like the UAE, Iran, and Iraq, which could potentially serve as transit points for Afghan dry fruits destined for India. However, these alternative pathways are likely to be more time-consuming and expensive, adding to the overall cost of imports and further contributing to potential price increases for consumers. The land border closure, combined with the broader trade suspension involving Pakistan, introduces a significant layer of uncertainty into the dry fruit supply chain, making price volatility a distinct possibility.

The disruption caused by the Attari-Wagah closure extends beyond just almonds and raisins, potentially affecting other dry fruits and commodities that have historically been traded through this route. While India’s direct imports of fruits and nuts from Pakistan were relatively minimal in the aforementioned period (a mere $0.08 million), the broader impact on trade with Afghanistan, a key supplier, is the primary concern. The closure essentially disrupts a well-established and relatively efficient trade corridor, forcing a re-evaluation of logistics and potentially leading to increased costs across the board.

The economic implications of this trade disruption are multifaceted. For Afghan traders and exporters, the closure of their primary land route to the large Indian market poses a significant challenge, potentially impacting their livelihoods and the overall Afghan economy, where dry fruit exports are a crucial component. Similarly, Indian importers and traders face the prospect of reduced volumes, higher costs, and the need to forge new supply chain arrangements. Consumers, ultimately, are likely to bear the brunt of any price increases, potentially affecting household budgets and the affordability of these commonly consumed items.

The long-term ramifications of the Attari-Wagah closure on the dry fruit trade remain uncertain. If the closure is temporary, trade flows may eventually resume, albeit with potential lingering effects on prices due to logistical adjustments. However, a prolonged closure could necessitate a more fundamental restructuring of the supply chain, with greater reliance on alternative, potentially more expensive, routes. This could lead to a sustained increase in the prices of almonds, raisins, and other dry fruits in the Indian market.

In conclusion, the closure of the Attari-Wagah border, triggered by the recent security concerns, has cast a shadow over the import of dry fruits, particularly almonds and raisins, from Afghanistan into India. The disruption of this key trade route, coupled with broader trade suspensions, is widely expected to lead to a tightening of supply and a consequent increase in domestic prices for these essential commodities. While alternative routes are being explored, the immediate future of the dry fruit trade remains uncertain, with Indian consumers likely to feel the pinch of potentially higher prices for their beloved badam and kishmish. The situation underscores the delicate interplay between geopolitical events and economic realities, with the consequences often felt in the everyday lives of ordinary citizens.